Mu 2023, abantu 153 bapfuye bazize indwara ya dengue muri Kerala, bangana na 32% by'impfu za dengue mu Buhinde. Bihar niyo leta ifite umubare wa kabiri w'impfu za dengue, aho impfu 74 gusa za dengue zagaragaye, munsi ya kimwe cya kabiri cy'umubare wa Kerala. Umwaka ushize, umuhanga mu by'ikirere Roxy Mathew Call, wakoraga ku icyitegererezo cyo guhanura icyorezo cya dengue, yegereye umuyobozi mukuru wa Kerala ushinzwe ubuzima n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere asaba inkunga y'uyu mushinga. Itsinda rye mu Kigo cy'Ubuhinde cy'Iteganyagihe ry'Ibiyaga (IITM) ryakoze icyitegererezo nk'icyo cya Pune. Dr Khil, umuhanga mu by'ikirere mu Kigo cy'Ubuhinde cy'Iteganyagihe ry'Ibiyaga (IITM), yagize ati: “Ibi bizagirira akamaro kanini ishami ry'ubuzima rya Kerala kuko bizafasha mu gukurikirana neza no gufata ingamba zo kwirinda indwara.”
Icyo yahawe gusa ni aderesi zemewe za email z'Umuyobozi w'Ubuzima Rusange akaba n'Umuyobozi Wungirije w'Ubuzima Rusange. Nubwo yabwiwe ubutumwa bugufi n'ubutumwa bugufi, nta makuru yatanzwe.
Ibi ni nako bigenda ku makuru y’imvura. Dr Cole, wahawe igihembo cya siyansi cya Vigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar muri uyu mwaka, yagize ati: “Hamwe no kubona ibintu neza, guteganya ibintu neza, imiburo ikwiye na politiki ikwiye, ubuzima bwinshi bushobora kurokorwa,” ibi ni ibyatangajwe na Dr Cole, wahawe igihembo cya siyansi cya Vigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Jeologist Award. Yatanze ikiganiro cyitwa ‘Ikirere: Ni iki kiri mu kaga’ muri Manorama Conclave i Thiruvananthapuram ku wa Gatanu.
Dr Cole yavuze ko bitewe n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, Western Ghats n’inyanja y’Abarabu ku mpande zombi za Kerala byahindutse nk’amadayimoni n’inyanja. Yagize ati: “Ikirere ntigihinduka gusa, ahubwo kirimo guhinduka vuba cyane.” Yavuze ko igisubizo kimwe rukumbi ari ukurema Kerala irangwa n’ibidukikije. Yagize ati: “Tugomba kwibanda ku rwego rwa panchayat. Imihanda, amashuri, amazu, ibindi bikorwaremezo n’ubutaka bw’ubuhinzi bigomba guhuzwa n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere.”
Ubwa mbere, yavuze ko Kerala igomba gushyiraho umuyoboro w’igenzura ry’ikirere ryimbitse kandi rikora neza. Ku ya 30 Nyakanga, umunsi Wayanad yaguye, Ishami ry’Iteganyagihe ry’Ubuhinde (IMD) n’Ikigo gishinzwe gucunga ibiza cya Leta ya Kerala (KSDMA) basohoye amakarita abiri atandukanye yo gupima imvura. Dukurikije ikarita ya KSDMA, Wayanad yaguye imvura nyinshi cyane (irenga mm 115) n’imvura nyinshi cyane ku ya 30 Nyakanga, icyakora, IMD itanga ibipimo bine bitandukanye kuri Wayanad: imvura nyinshi cyane, imvura nyinshi, imvura iringaniye n’imvura yoroheje;
Dukurikije ikarita ya IMD, uturere twinshi two muri Thiruvananthapuram na Kollam twabonye imvura yoroheje cyane, ariko KSDMA yatangaje ko utu turere tubiri twabonye imvura iri ku rugero rwo hasi. Dr Kohl yagize ati: “Ntidushobora kwihanganira ibyo muri iki gihe. Tugomba gushyiraho umuyoboro munini w’igenzura ry’ikirere muri Kerala kugira ngo dusobanukirwe neza kandi duhanure ikirere.” Yagize ati: “Aya makuru agomba kuboneka ku mugaragaro.”
Muri Kerala hari ishuri buri kilometero 3. Aya mashuri ashobora gushyirwamo ibikoresho byo kugenzura ikirere. Yagize ati: “Buri shuri rishobora gushyirwamo ibipimo by’imvura n’ibipimo bya termometero kugira ngo bipime ubushyuhe. Mu 2018, ishuri rimwe ryakurikiranye urugero rw’imvura n’amazi mu ruzi rwa Meenachil kandi rirokora imiryango 60 iri ku nkengero z’uruzi iteganya imyuzure.”
Mu buryo nk'ubwo, amashuri ashobora gukoresha imirasire y'izuba ndetse akagira n'ibigega byo gufata amazi y'imvura. Yagize ati: “Muri ubu buryo, abanyeshuri ntibazamenya gusa ibijyanye n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere, ahubwo bazayitegura.” Amakuru yabo azaba igice cy'urusobe rw'igenzura.
Ariko, guteganya imyuzure n'inkangu bisaba guhuza no gukorana kw'amashami menshi, nka geologiya na hydrologiya, kugira ngo habeho ingero. Yagize ati: “Turabishobora.”
Buri myaka icumi, metero 17 z'ubutaka ziratakara. Dr Cole wo mu Kigo cy'Ubuhinde cyita ku bumenyi bw'ikirere cya Tropical yavuze ko urugero rw'inyanja rwazamutseho milimetero 3 ku mwaka kuva mu 1980, cyangwa santimetero 3 ku myaka icumi. Yavuze ko nubwo bisa nkaho ari bito, niba umusozi ari dogere 0.1 gusa, metero 17 z'ubutaka zizasenyuka. Yagize ati: “Ni inkuru ishaje. Mu 2050, urugero rw'inyanja ruzazamukaho milimetero 5 ku mwaka.”
Mu buryo nk'ubwo, kuva mu 1980, umubare w'inkubi z'umuyaga wiyongereyeho 50% kandi igihe cyazo kigera kuri 80%. Muri iki gihe, ingano y'imvura nyinshi yikubye gatatu. Yavuze ko mu 2050, imvura iziyongeraho 10% kuri buri dogere selisiyusi yiyongereyeho ubushyuhe.
Ingaruka z'Impinduka mu Mikoreshereze y'Ubutaka Ubushakashatsi bwakorewe ku kirwa cy'ubushyuhe mu mijyi cya Trivandrum (UHI) (ijambo rikoreshwa mu gusobanura uduce tw'imijyi dushyuha kurusha uduce tw'icyaro) bwagaragaje ko ubushyuhe mu duce twubatse cyangwa mu mashyamba ya sima bwazamuka bukagera kuri dogere selisiyusi 30.82 ugereranije na dogere selisiyusi 25.92 mu 1988 - izamuka rya dogere selisiyusi hafi 5 mu myaka 34.
Ubushakashatsi bwatanzwe na Dr. Cole bwerekanye ko ahantu hadatuwe ubushyuhe buzazamuka kuva kuri dogere selisiyusi 25.92 mu 1988 kugera kuri dogere selisiyusi 26.8 mu 2022. Mu turere dufite ibimera, ubushyuhe bwazamutse kuva kuri dogere selisiyusi 26.61 bugera kuri dogere selisiyusi 30.82 mu 2022, ni ukuvuga izamuka rya dogere selisiyusi 4.21.
Ubushyuhe bw'amazi bwagaragaye kuri dogere selisiyusi 25.21, buri munsi gato y'ubwa dogere selisiyusi 25.66 bwabonetse mu 1988, ubushyuhe bwari dogere selisiyusi 24.33;
Dr Cole yavuze ko ubushyuhe bwinshi n'ubuke mu kirwa cy'ubushyuhe cy'umurwa mukuru nabyo byakomeje kwiyongera muri icyo gihe. Yagize ati: “Impinduka nk'izo mu mikoreshereze y'ubutaka zishobora gutuma ubutaka bushobora kwibasirwa n'inkangu n'imyuzure itunguranye.”
Dr Cole yavuze ko guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere bisaba ingamba ebyiri: kugabanya no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. Yagize ati: “Kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere ubu birenze ubushobozi bwacu. Ibi bigomba gukorwa ku rwego rw’isi. Kerala igomba kwibanda ku guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere. KSDMA yasanze ahantu hashyuha cyane. Tanga ibikoresho byo kugenzura imihindagurikire y’ikirere kuri buri panchayat.”
Igihe cyo kohereza ubutumwa: 23 Nzeri 2024