Mu 2023, abantu 153 bapfuye bazize indwara ya dengue muri Kerala, bangana na 32% by'impfu za dengue mu Buhinde. Bihar ni leta ifite umubare wa kabiri mu bahitanwa n’indwara ya dengue, aho hapfuye abantu 74 gusa b’indwara, ni kimwe cya kabiri cy’imibare ya Kerala. Umwaka urashize, umuhanga mu bumenyi bw’ikirere Roxy Mathew Call, wakoraga ku buryo bwo guhanura icyorezo cya dengue, yegereye umuyobozi mukuru wa Kerala w’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ndetse n’ushinzwe ubuzima asaba inkunga y’uyu mushinga. Itsinda rye mu kigo cy’Ubuhinde gishinzwe Ubushyuhe bw’ikirere (IITM) ryateguye icyitegererezo gisa na Pune. Dr Khil, umuhanga mu bijyanye n’ikirere mu kigo cy’Ubuhinde gishinzwe Ubushyuhe bw’ikirere (IITM), yagize ati: “Ibi bizagirira akamaro cyane ishami ry’ubuzima rya Kerala kuko bizafasha mu gukurikirana neza no gufata ingamba zo gukumira indwara.” umusirikare mukuru.
Ibyo yahawe byose ni aderesi imeri y’umuyobozi w’ubuzima rusange n’umuyobozi wungirije w’ubuzima rusange. Nubwo imeri yibutsa ubutumwa n'ubutumwa bwanditse, nta makuru yatanzwe.
Kimwe nacyo kijyanye namakuru yimvura. Dr Cole wahawe igihembo cy’ubumenyi cy’Ubuhinde muri uyu mwaka, igihembo cya Vigyan Yuva Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Geologiste yagize ati: "Hamwe n’ubushakashatsi bukwiye, ibiteganijwe neza, umuburo ukwiye na politiki iboneye, abantu benshi barashobora kurokoka." Ku wa gatanu, yatanze disikuru yiswe 'Ikirere: Ikimanitse mu buringanire' muri Concorave ya Manorama i Thiruvananthapuram.
Dr Cole yavuze ko kubera imihindagurikire y’ikirere, Ghats y’iburengerazuba n’inyanja ya Arabiya ku mpande zombi za Kerala bahindutse nka shitani n’inyanja. Ati: "Ikirere ntigihinduka gusa, kirahinduka vuba". Igisubizo cyonyine, ni ugushiraho Kerala yangiza ibidukikije. Ati: "Tugomba kwibanda ku rwego rw'umurenge. Umuhanda, amashuri, amazu, ibindi bigo ndetse n'ubutaka bw'ubuhinzi bigomba guhuzwa n'imihindagurikire y'ikirere".
Yavuze ko mbere, Kerala igomba gushyiraho umuyoboro wuzuye kandi ugenzura ikirere. Ku ya 30 Nyakanga, umunsi w’isenyuka rya Wayanad, Ishami ry’ubumenyi bw’ikirere mu Buhinde (IMD) n’ikigo cya Leta gishinzwe imicungire y’ibiza (KSDMA) bashyize ahagaragara amakarita abiri atandukanye yo gupima imvura. Ukurikije ikarita ya KSDMA, Wayanad yakiriye imvura nyinshi cyane (hejuru ya 115mm) n’imvura nyinshi ku ya 30 Nyakanga, ariko, IMD itanga ibyiciro bine bitandukanye kuri Wayanad: imvura nyinshi cyane, imvura nyinshi, imvura igereranije n’imvura yoroheje;
Ukurikije ikarita ya IMD, uturere twinshi two muri Thiruvananthapuram na Kollam twakiriye imvura nyinshi cyane, ariko KSDMA yatangaje ko uturere twombi twaguye imvura igereranije. Dr Kohl yagize ati: "Ntabwo dushobora kwihanganira muri iyi minsi. Tugomba gushyiraho umuyoboro wuzuye wo gukurikirana ikirere muri Kerala kugira ngo twumve neza kandi tumenye ikirere." Ati: “Aya makuru agomba kuboneka ku mugaragaro.”
Muri Kerala hari ishuri buri kilometero 3. Aya mashuri arashobora kuba afite ibikoresho byo kurwanya ikirere. Ati: "Buri shuri rishobora kuba rifite ibipimo by'imvura hamwe na termometero kugira ngo bipime ubushyuhe. Mu mwaka wa 2018, ishuri rimwe ryakurikiranye imvura n'amazi mu ruzi rwa Meenachil kandi bikiza imiryango 60 yo hepfo mu guhanura imyuzure".
Muri ubwo buryo, amashuri arashobora gukoreshwa nizuba kandi akagira n'ibigega byo gusarura amazi yimvura. Ati: “Ubu buryo, abanyeshuri ntibazamenya gusa imihindagurikire y’ikirere, ahubwo bazanayitegura”. Amakuru yabo azaba igice cyurusobe rwo gukurikirana.
Ariko, guhanura imyuzure n’isenyuka bisaba guhuza no gukorana kwinzego nyinshi nka geologiya na hydrology, kugirango habeho icyitegererezo. Ati: “Turashobora kubikora.”
Buri myaka icumi, metero 17 z'ubutaka ziratakara. Dr Cole wo mu kigo cy’Ubuhinde gishinzwe Ubumenyi bw’ikirere yavuze ko inyanja yazamutseho milimetero 3 ku mwaka kuva mu 1980, cyangwa santimetero 3 ku myaka icumi. Yavuze ko nubwo bisa nkaho ari bito, niba ahahanamye ari dogere 0.1 gusa, ubutaka bwa metero 17 buzangirika. Ati: "Ni inkuru imwe ishaje. Mu 2050, inyanja izazamuka kuri milimetero 5 ku mwaka".
Muri ubwo buryo, guhera mu 1980, umubare w'inkubi y'umuyaga wiyongereyeho 50 ku ijana naho igihe cyacyo kikaba cyiyongereyeho 80 ku ijana, nk'uko yabitangaje. Muri iki gihe, ingano yimvura ikabije yikubye gatatu. Yavuze ko mu 2050, imvura iziyongera 10% kuri buri dogere selisiyusi yiyongera ku bushyuhe.
Ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’imikoreshereze y’ubutaka Ubushakashatsi bwakozwe ku kirwa cya Trivandrum cyitwa Urban Heat Island (UHI) (ijambo rikoreshwa mu gusobanura imijyi yo mu mijyi hashyushye kuruta icyaro) ryerekanye ko ubushyuhe bw’ahantu hubatswe cyangwa mu mashyamba ya beto buzamuka bugera kuri 30. 82 dogere selisiyusi ugereranije na dogere selisiyusi 25.92. muri 1988 - gusimbuka hafi dogere 5 mumyaka 34.
Ubushakashatsi bwatanzwe na Dr. Cole bwerekanye ko ahantu hafunguye ubushyuhe buzava kuri dogere selisiyusi 25.92 mu 1988 bugere kuri dogere selisiyusi 26.8 mu 2022. Mu turere dufite ibimera, ubushyuhe bwavuye kuri dogere selisiyusi 26.61 bugera kuri dogere 30.82 muri 2022, gusimbuka kuri dogere 4.21.
Ubushyuhe bw'amazi bwanditswe kuri dogere selisiyusi 25.21, munsi gato ya dogere selisiyusi 25.66 zanditswe mu 1988, ubushyuhe bwari dogere selisiyusi 24.33;
Dr Cole yavuze ko ubushyuhe bwo hejuru kandi buke mu kirwa cy’ubushyuhe bw’umurwa mukuru nabwo bwiyongereye buhoro buhoro muri icyo gihe. Ati: “Ihinduka nk'iryo mu mikoreshereze y'ubutaka rishobora kandi gutuma ubutaka bwibasirwa n'inkangu ndetse n'umwuzure.”
Dr Cole yavuze ko guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere bisaba ingamba ebyiri: kugabanya no kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere. Ati: "Kugabanya imihindagurikire y’ikirere ubu birenze ubushobozi bwacu. Ibi bigomba gukorwa ku rwego rw'isi. Kerala igomba kwibanda ku kurwanya imihindagurikire y'ikirere. KSDMA yerekanye ahantu hashyushye. Gutanga ibikoresho byo kurwanya ikirere kuri buri mudugudu".
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nzeri-23-2024