Impinduka ziterwa n’ikirere mu miterere y’amazi meza zagaragaye ko zigira ingaruka ku miterere n’imikorere y’urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima byo ku nkombe. Twasesenguye impinduka mu ngaruka z’amazi atemba ku nkombe za Patagonia y’Amajyaruguru y’Amajyaruguru (NWP) mu myaka yashize (1993–2021) dukoresheje isesengura ry’igihe kirekire cy’imigezi, simulation y’amazi, amakuru aturuka kuri satelite n’isesengura ry’imiterere y’inyanja (ubushyuhe, amazi mabi, n’umunyu). Kugabanuka gukomeye kw’amazi make mu karere kagizwe n’ibibaya bitandatu by’ingenzi by’imigezi byagaragaye ku gipimo cya buri cyumweru, buri kwezi, no mu bihe by’umwaka. Izi mpinduka zagaragaye cyane mu bibaya by’amajyaruguru bivanze (urugero, uruzi rwa Puelo) ariko bisa nkaho birimo kwerekeza mu majyepfo ku migezi irangwa n’uburyo bwo kumanuka. Mu nyanja y’imbere yegereye ibibaya bibiri, kugabanuka k’amazi meza bihura n’umuraba muke n’ubushyuhe bw’ubushyuhe bw’ubuso mu majyaruguru ya Patagonia. Ibisubizo byacu bigaragaza ingaruka zihindagurika cyane z’imigezi ku biyaga byegeranye n’amazi yo ku nkombe muri NWP. Turagaragaza ko hakenewe isuzuma ry’urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima, guteganya, kugabanya ingaruka no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu gihe cy’impinduka z’ikirere, hamwe n’imicungire y’ibibaya bihuza n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere bitanga amazi anyura mu mazi yo ku nkombe z’inyanja.
Imigezi ni yo soko y'ibanze y'amazi meza yo ku mugabane w'inyanja1. Mu miterere y'inkombe zifunze gato, imigezi ni ingenzi mu gutuma inzira zizenguruka2 n'ikiraro gihuza urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima byo ku isi n'ibyo mu nyanja, bitwara intungamubiri, ibintu bikomoka ku bimera, n'ibisigazwa byuzuza ibyo mu nyanja n'inyanja ifunguye3. Ubushakashatsi buherutse bwagaragaje impinduka mu bunini n'igihe amazi meza yinjira mu nyanja y'inyanja4. Isesengura ry'uruhererekane rw'igihe n'ingero z'amazi bigaragaza imiterere itandukanye y'ahantu5, urugero, kuva ku kwiyongera gukomeye kw'amazi meza asohoka ku misozi miremire6—kubera kwiyongera kw'urubura—kugeza ku kugabanuka kw'imigendere yo hagati bitewe n'amapfa y'amazi7. Hatitawe ku cyerekezo n'ubunini bw'imigendere iherutse kuvugwa, imihindagurikire y'ikirere yagaragaye nk'impamvu ikomeye y'imigendekere y'amazi yahindutse8, mu gihe ingaruka ku mazi yo ku nkombe n'urusobe rw'ibinyabuzima ashyigikira zitarasuzumwa neza kandi zigasobanuka9. Impinduka mu gihe cy’amazi anyura mu migezi, ziterwa n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere (impinduka mu miterere y’imvura n’ubushyuhe buzamuka) n’ibipimo by’ingufu z’abantu nk’ingomero z’amashanyarazi cyangwa ibigega by’amazi10,11, kuvomerera amazi, n’impinduka mu mikoreshereze y’ubutaka12, bitera ikibazo mu gusesengura imiterere y’amazi meza13,14. Urugero, ubushakashatsi bwinshi bwagaragaje ko uturere dufite ubwoko bwinshi bw’amashyamba tugaragaza ubushobozi bwo kwihanganira urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima mu gihe cy’amapfa kurusha utwo mu mirima y’amashyamba cyangwa ubuhinzi15,16. Mu gice cyo hagati, gusobanukirwa ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere mu gihe kizaza ku nyanja y’inkombe binyuze mu gutandukanya ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere n’impinduka z’imibereho y’abantu mu gace runaka bisaba kwitabwaho n’uburyo bwo gusuzuma bufite impinduka nke kugira ngo impinduka mu miterere y’amazi zitandukanywe n’impinduka z’abantu mu gace runaka.
Patagonia y'Iburengerazuba (> 41°S ku nkombe ya Pasifika muri Amerika y'Epfo) igaragara nk'imwe muri utu turere twabungabunzwe neza, aho ubushakashatsi bukomeje ari ingenzi mu gukurikirana no kurinda utu tunyangingo tw'ibinyabuzima. Muri aka karere, imigezi itemba yihuta ikorana n'imiterere y'ubutaka igoye yo ku nkombe kugira ngo igire imwe mu migezi minini cyane ku isi17,18. Bitewe n'uko iri kure, ibibaya by'imigezi ya Patagonia biracyari mu buryo butangaje, bifite amashyamba menshi gakondo19, ubucucike bw'abantu buke, kandi muri rusange nta ngomero, ibigega, n'ibikorwaremezo byo kuhira. Kuba utu tunyangingo tw'ibidukikije turi ku nkombe duhura n'impinduka mu bidukikije biterwa ahanini n'imikoranire yatwo n'amasoko y'amazi meza. Amazi meza yinjira mu mazi yo ku nkombe za Patagonia y'Amajyaruguru y'Uburengerazuba (NWP; 41–46 ºS), harimo imvura igwa mu buryo butaziguye n'amazi atemba, bikorana n'amazi menshi yo mu nyanja, cyane cyane amazi yo mu mazi afite umunyu mwinshi (SAAW). Ibi, nabyo bigira ingaruka ku miterere y’inzira, kuvugurura amazi, no guhumeka20 binyuze mu gukora imiyoboro ikomeye y’umunyu, hamwe n’impinduka nyinshi z’ibihe n’ubusumbane bw’ahantu muri halocline21. Imikoranire hagati y’aya masoko yombi y’amazi inagira ingaruka ku miterere y’amatsinda y’amazi ya planktonic22, igira ingaruka ku kugabanuka k’urumuri23, kandi igatuma igipimo cya azote na fosifore muri SAAW24 kigabanuka ndetse n’ubwiyongere bw’amazi ya orthosilicate mu gice cyo hejuru25,26. Byongeye kandi, amazi meza yinjira atuma igipimo gikomeye cya ogisijeni ishongeshejwe (DO) kigaragara muri aya mazi yo mu migezi, aho igice cyo hejuru muri rusange kigaragaza igipimo kinini cya DO (6–8 mL L−1)27.
Ubu buryo buke bwo kugabanya ubukana bw’ibibaya bya Patagonia butandukanye n’uburyo inkombe zikoreshwa cyane, cyane cyane n’inganda zikora ubworozi bw’amafi, urwego rw’ubukungu rukomeye muri Shili. Kuri ubu, Shili iri mu bahanga mu buhinzi bw’amafi ku isi, ni yo ya kabiri mu zikohereza amafi menshi nka salmon na trout, ikaba n’iyohereza amafi menshi nka 28. Ubworozi bw’amafi nka salmon na fleur, ubu bukorera ahantu hagera kuri 2300 hamwe n’ubuso bwa hegitari 24.000 muri ako karere, butanga agaciro gakomeye mu bukungu mu majyepfo ya Shili29. Iri terambere ntiribura ingaruka ku bidukikije, cyane cyane mu buhinzi bw’amafi nka salmon, igikorwa gikora ku ntungamubiri zikomoka ku bidukikije30. Byagaragaye kandi ko bushobora kwibasirwa cyane n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere31,32.
Mu myaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo ishize, ubushakashatsi bwakozwe muri NWP bwagaragaje igabanuka ry’amazi meza33 kandi bwerekana ko amazi azagabanuka mu mpeshyi no mu gihe cy’izuba34, ndetse n’igihe cy’amapfa y’amazi35. Izi mpinduka mu mazi meza zigira ingaruka ku bidukikije byihuse kandi zigira ingaruka ku miterere y’urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima. Urugero, imimerere mibi mu mazi yo ku nkombe z’inyanja mu gihe cy’amapfa yo mu mpeshyi n’impeshyi yarushijeho kwiyongera, kandi, rimwe na rimwe, yagize ingaruka ku nganda z’ubworozi bw’amafi binyuze mu kubura umwuka uhagije36, kwiyongera kwa parasitism, n’indabyo zangiza algae32,37,38 (HABs).
Mu myaka ibarirwa muri za mirongo ishize, ubushakashatsi bwakozwe muri NWP bwagaragaje igabanuka ry’amazi meza33 kandi bwerekana ko amazi azagabanuka mu mpeshyi no mu gihe cy’izuba34, ndetse n’igihe cy’amapfa y’amazi35. Izi mpinduka mu mazi meza zigira ingaruka ku bidukikije byihuse kandi zigira ingaruka ku miterere y’urusobe rw’ibinyabuzima. Urugero, imimerere mibi mu mazi yo ku nkombe z’inyanja mu gihe cy’amapfa yo mu mpeshyi n’impeshyi yarushijeho kwiyongera, kandi, rimwe na rimwe, yagize ingaruka ku nganda z’ubworozi bw’amafi binyuze mu kubura umwuka uhagije36, kwiyongera kwa parasitism, n’indabyo zangiza algae32,37,38 (HABs).
Ubumenyi buriho ku igabanuka ry’amazi meza akoreshwa muri NWP bushingiye ku isesengura ry’ibipimo by’amazi39, bisobanura imiterere y’ibarurishamibare cyangwa ihindagurika ry’amakuru y’amazi akomoka ku nyandiko nke z’igihe kirekire n’uburyo buke bwo gukwirakwira mu kirere. Ku bijyanye n’imiterere y’amazi mu mazi y’inyanja ya NWP cyangwa inyanja yegereye, nta nyandiko z’igihe kirekire ziboneka. Bitewe n’uko ibikorwa by’imibereho n’ubukungu byo ku nkombe bishobora kugerwaho n’ingaruka z’imihindagurikire y’ikirere, gukoresha uburyo burambuye bwo guhuza ubutaka n’inyanja mu gucunga no guhangana n’imihindagurikire y’ikirere ni ngombwa40. Kugira ngo dukemure iki kibazo, twahuje icyitegererezo cy’amazi (1990-2020) n’amakuru akomoka kuri satelite n’isesengura ry’imiterere y’inyanja (1993-2020). Ubu buryo bufite intego ebyiri z’ingenzi: (1) gusuzuma amateka y’ibipimo by’amazi ku rwego rw’akarere na (2) gusuzuma ingaruka z’izi mpinduka ku buryo bw’inkombe zegereye, cyane cyane ku bijyanye n’umunyu wo ku buso bw’inyanja, ubushyuhe, n’amazi.
Dushobora gutanga ubwoko butandukanye bwa sensors zigezweho zo kugenzura imiterere y'amazi n'ubuziranenge bw'amazi, murakaza neza kugisha inama.
Igihe cyo kohereza ubutumwa: 18 Nzeri 2024